When you’re having trouble, go to an extreme case or simple case
Don’t take refuge in complexity
When trying to understand a complex situation, think of an everyday analogue
The world is much more uncertain than you think
Think probabilistically about the world
Uncertainty is the friend of the status quo
Good decisions sometimes have poor outcomes
Some good decisions have a high probability of a bad outcome
Weight errors as commission the same as errors of omission
Don’t be limited by the options in front you
Information is only valuable to you if it can change your decision
Long division is the most important tool for policy (bang for buck)
Elasticities are a powerful tool for understanding many important things
Heterogeneity in the populations explains many things (subgroups)
Capitalize on complementaries
Strive hard to avoid envy - your friend’s success is your gain
Do your best to banish regret (wasteful emotion)
Make pleasure-enducing decisions long in advance
There are some things you just don’t want to know
If you focus on people’s shortcomings, you’ll always be disappointed
Practice asynchronous reciprocity